How to make "financial investment" truly profitable? Doing a good review is bett
Preface: The term "pan" refers to what we commonly call the trading chart; "review" means to repeat or look back.
Reviewing, originally a stock market term, has expanded its scope as investment methods have diversified, and this term is increasingly common in foreign exchange trading.
In the context of foreign exchange trading, reviewing refers to looking back and summarizing past market conditions, and based on the trends that have already unfolded, to summarize one's own insights and lessons learned, in order to better engage in the next trade.
**Is reviewing useful?**
The question of whether reviewing is useful can be said to be a matter of personal perspective. However, for most traders who consistently make a profit, reviewing is a required course.
In the foreign exchange market, many traders are not professional foreign exchange dealers, and many need to balance work, life, and trading. In this case, naturally, many market trends will be missed in the course of daily life and work. For these traders, reviewing is very useful.
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Reviewing is not about regretting the historical trends or simply chasing after a potential new trend. The premise of reviewing should be that the trader already has a complete trading plan. The significance of reviewing is to test your trading plan and make appropriate adjustments. A good trader may complete his trading during the review process, and the opening is just a process of execution. This is what is often said: plan your trade, trade your plan.
Reviewing is like a military drill; one cannot wait until the battlefield to test whether my tactics are effective. Reviewing can clarify vague ideas for traders and improve imperfect systems. For example, whether a certain signal is effective, whether a certain insight is reasonable, all of these can be verified during the review. The more details of one's trading plan are confirmed during the review, the greater the possibility of victory in actual combat.**How to Conduct a Post-Game Analysis**
Many software programs come with built-in features for post-game analysis. Taking the most commonly used MT4 as an example, users can select specific trading products from historical data for review. Traders can choose their preferred review model and time period, and make adjustments to the details as needed.
Post-game analysis involves many aspects. Specifically, traders can consider the following perspectives:
1. **Historical Data** - When traders want to have a comprehensive and detailed understanding of a product or an industry, they can use historical data for their analysis.
2. **Technical Review** - Technical review is mainly for traders with some experience in the industry. Traders can find their own trading records, customize time periods, and review order details for a week or a month, etc., to review their own trading. During this process, traders can summarize their actions, compare them with their trading plans, understand whether they have well executed their trading plans, and whether their trading systems have any flaws, etc.
3. **Position and Capital Management** - For traders, reviewing their positions is also very important. Traders must first manage their positions well in order to successfully manage their capital, which in turn guides their future investments and trades. If a trader's positions are very arbitrary, or even repeatedly place orders for the same product in a short period of time, it indicates that they are either a novice who doesn't care about money, or a "gambler" who has lost their head, both of which are undesirable. Therefore, when conducting a review, traders should pay attention to whether there are any problems with their position management, whether there is a standard, and if not, they need to establish one as soon as possible.
4. **Trading System** - A well-developed trading system is very important for traders. Therefore, during the review process, it is also necessary to continuously improve and optimize one's trading system, and to do the relevant statistical work. Reviewing is a static verification process, and trading itself is a probabilistic activity, so statistical work is very important. Under an effective system, doing a good job of reviewing will greatly enhance the confidence of traders.
5. **Mental Attitude Review** - Mental attitude is an important factor in trading that should not be ignored. The review of mental attitude mainly refers to traders questioning themselves based on their usual subjective issues, such as whether they strictly implemented their trading plans, whether they adhered to their own rules, whether they acted impulsively and recklessly by doing more than planned, etc. Traders should aim for stable profits, and not be swayed by short-term gains and losses. Expected profits are a trap that can lead you to make wrong decisions, and human weaknesses such as greed and randomness can lead traders to failure. The focus of traders should be on doing the right things, making a plan that is conducive to the increase of account value, and executing it well, which is a cause for celebration.
**Why Good Review Results Don't Translate to Real-World Performance**
The conclusion that "reviewing is useless" is not baseless; it is a conclusion some traders have drawn from their own trading experiences. The reasons for this situation may include both subjective and objective factors. Objectively speaking, the market is uncertain, and it is possible to have mastered all knowledge and skills but still encounter unexpected situations due to bad luck. Reviewing is a process of self-summation and sorting out, a growth process that accumulates experience, and it cannot guarantee profits. However, not making any effort and trying to make money by luck alone is even more unrealistic. Subjectively, traders may also make some mistakes, which are avoidable:
- **Overfitting to Historical Data**: Sometimes, traders may overfit their strategies to historical data, which may not perform as well in real-time trading due to market changes.
- **Emotional Trading**: During a review, emotions are not a factor, but in real trading, emotions can significantly impact decision-making, leading to deviations from the planned strategy.
- **Risk Management**: Reviewing past trades may not fully account for the risk management practices that should be in place during live trading.
- **Market Volatility**: The market's volatility can be higher in real-time, which can affect the performance of strategies that worked well during more stable periods.
- **Execution Issues**: There might be differences in execution during a review versus live trading, such as delays or errors that can impact outcomes.
- **Sample Bias**: The data used for reviewing may not be representative of all market conditions, leading to a biased view of strategy performance.
By recognizing and addressing these potential issues, traders can work towards bridging the gap between their review results and real-world trading performance."Only seeing the thief enjoy the meat, not seeing the thief get beaten": People tend to see what they want to see. When reviewing trades, traders may consciously or unconsciously choose trades where their system worked, taking the indicators they selected and the systems they designed to test in large market movements or relatively easier market conditions. Then they find, "Wow, this really works!" and rush to apply it to live trading, not realizing that such obvious market conditions are the minority, and volatile markets are more common. This kind of review is not much different from working in isolation.
Not enough review trades: Good review results do not necessarily mean the system is effective; it could also be because the trader has reviewed too few trades. A stable trading system must be verified over time, and a low sample size has no persuasive power. If one only looks at a few days or even a few hours of the market and thinks they have successfully verified their system, but it might have no effect when applied to live trading.
Unstable mindset: Another reason is the psychological impact in live trading. Reviewing trades, simulated trading, and so on can ultimately solve technical issues. They can help us refine our trading systems and determine trading signals, but they cannot help us overcome psychological weaknesses. Reviewing trades is a rational analysis, but in trading, one may be subject to various temptations and distractions. After all, in live trading, it's real money, which is why a trading plan is important—to avoid being influenced by impulsive emotions.